There are signs of recovery in Europe's two largest economies.Germany and France have reported 0.3% economic growth in the second quarter of this year.This has surprised most economists who were expecting the American economy to lead Europe out of recession,dependant as they are on exports to the U.S.The recovery was largely due to the stimulus packages announced by their respective governments which boosted consumer spending.
The Chinese economy has grown by 7.1% in the first half of 2009.Retail sales are up 15% compared with the same month last year.Chinese leaders are optimistic that domestic consumption will boost the economy and make up for the decline in exports.
On the other hand the U.S. economy is still shrinking,although the pace of decline is slowing.This seems odd given that economies of the above mentioned countries are heavily dependant on exports to the U.S. Somehow they have implemented their stimulus packages more efficiently and with much less public bickering than the U.S.
President Obama gained tremendous political mileage in his election campaign from the financial mess the country was in.His popularity remained largely unaffected in the first few months of his Presidency.Now suddenly people are taking a harder look at his economic achievements and his approval rating has dropped sharply to about 50% only.Obama is sticking to his earlier stand that it is all Bush's fault.'The recession was years in the making,it didn't just start last month.The bank crisis did not start on my watch.Let's get the history straight,'he says.
There are fewer takers for this argument now than there were earlier.When Obama was pushing his stimulus plan he had said that its purpose was to immediately jumpstart job creation as well as long term economic growth.Now he says that the recovery plan was not designed to work over four months, rather it is designed to work over two years.
So what has gone wrong?What's wrong is that not more than 15% of the $787 billion stimulus package has been spent so far.Most of it will be spent only after 2009! Instead of wrangling over how to spend the money and where, the government should have simply distributed the money amongst taxpayers through lower taxes and direct grants.Unfortunately this idea was rejected and Congress retained stimulus spending decisions in its own hands rather than allowing ordinary Americans to decide what they wanted to do with their money.
Figures out Thursday do not present the picture of an improving economy.Retail sales fell 0.1% in July inspite of the 'cash for clunkers program,'and the back to school shopping season.Excluding autos retail sales were down 0.6%.Labor department figures suggest that new jobless claims rose last week over the prevous week.Foreclosure filings in July were 32% higher from the same month last year and they have risen 7% from June to July this year.Analysts predict that 30% of all mortgages may be underwater by next year.Unemployment too is expected to cross 10% and start declining only from the second half of next year.It's your economy now Mr. Obama.Blaming Bush for everything won't do anymore.
Friday, August 14, 2009
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